Underdog Fantasy Sports Market

Drafting a good rookie TE can sometimes be a steal. The wrinkle in this pick is that Miller plays for the Steelers, a team that doesn’t historically throw to their TE.

Round 9

145. L. Suggs Jupiter Jammers

146. A. Randle El Ngoction

147. J. Wilkins Weekend Warr...

148. L. Tynes Eagles all t...

149. C. Cooley Raleigh Rene...

150. T. McGee Monarchs

151. Al. Smith Once again...

152. P. Price Miracle on Turf

153. K. Curtis Towers of Power

154. O. Kimrin Crusher's Pride

155. D. Stallworth Juggernauts

156. J. Putzier The Half Drunks

157. E. Reed Gaping Hole

158. B. Franks Rocky's Pride

159. M. Nugent SteelFighters

160. N. Davenport theTunasCatch

161. E. Manning Free Sean Ta...

162. J. Kleinsasser STRYKE FORCE

Best Value: Ed Reed – Gaping Hole

Reed has the ability to produce like an extra WR. He is the only defensive player you can make that claim about.

Gutsy Pick: Eli Manning – Free Sean Taylor

Has he gotten better? Will Burress be a big time WR? Is Shockey going to give him something? How good will the O-line be? Will Tiki repeat last year’s performance? Too many questions here for my taste.

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

Need to Fill Some Innings

2005-08-28T23:38:00.000-07:00

Horacio Ramirez is pitching against Washington in Atlanta and you should care. While the 4.52 ERA and 1.33 WHIP is less than eye-catching, you can bank on the hidden 3.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Ramirez has been lights out all season at Turner Field. In his last five home starts dating back to June 22, Ramirez has tossed 37.2 innings and only given up 4 ER. That’s a slim 0.96 ERA. As long as Ramirez is starting at home he’s worth the add. Let the other managers in your league scoff at your addition of a pitcher with a 4.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last month. When they see the 4-2 (W) for Ramirez Thursday morning they will understand, or you will look like a soothsayer. I hope you can live with either.

Underdog

Four Reasons you should pick Shaun Alexander over LaDainian Tomlinson

2005-08-28T17:02:00.000-07:00

by the Tower of Power

To start, NO, I am not smoking crack.

The standard thinking is that Tomlinson should be the first back drafted this year. I am simply going against the grain and presenting four legitimate reasons Alexander may end up being the better choice for the 2005 season.

1) Contract Year

This one is a biggie. Historically, players who are doubted, while still in their prime, tend to produce career numbers in the years their contract expires. Alexander happens to fit these criteria. At 27 and coming off his best season statistically, he no doubt felt slighted by the fact the Seahawks would not give him a long-term deal. Compounding this insult was the searing reality that no team would trade a first round pick for him. Alexander rushed for 1696 yards last year and scored 20 touchdowns. How scary will it be if history holds up and this year proves to be a career effort!? 2000 yards? 25 touchdowns? Neither stat is out of the question.

2) Consistency and Durability

Over the last four year seasons, Alexander has averaged 17.5 touchdowns and 1406 rushing yards. On top of this, he hasn’t missed a regular season start in four years. In the Underdog Sport’s book, consistency + durability = sure thing. Alexander is as close to perfect as a fantasy running back can be.

3) The Offensive Line

The left side of the line is led by elite tackle, Walter Jones and perennial Probowl guard, Steve Hutchison. The rest of the unit if filled out by Chris Gray (RG), Robbie Tobeck (C), and the infamous, “Porkchop” Womack (RT). Besides the quality play of each individual, the unit has been together for the last four years and, with the exception of Womack, each member of the line started and played all 16 games last season. Combine high quality talent and a cohesive environment and you have one darn good front five. The point – Alexander gets the luxury of avoiding injury and a pounding behind this fortress.

4) Additional Selfish Motivation

"This is the first time I've ever been back-stabbed in my life"

-Shaun Alexander

This was Alexander’s initial reaction after a play call cost him the rushing title by one yard to Curtis Martin. This is the mindset of a selfish person - a bad quality in the locker room, but a bonanza for fantasy owners. Alexander will hit the hole often and hard to gain the recognition he feels that is rightfully his.

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

Box Score Mining: ATL V. JAC pre

2005-08-25T22:36:00.000-07:00

My apologies to Towers of Power. I have been trashing him for two of his sleeper picks, Matt Jones (WR and soon to be TE eligible -Jax) and Michael Jenkins (WR-WR wasteland... I mean ATL). They are looking great during their most recent preseason game against each other. I wouldn’t put stock in their performances if they did their damage during the third quarter against the second team defenses, but I like what I saw against the first stringers.

Matt Jones- He is every bit a beast that Towers said he was. I never disagreed with that. I just didn’t see him factoring heavily in Leftwich’s preferences. He saw a number of looks his way and Atlanta couldn’t keep him in check. The big Jacksonville scoring drive was mostly as a result of Jones’ one-hand grab after streaking down the field. The players guarding him would have needed a ladder to have a shot at defending the play. Leftwich now has a reliable safety valve in the very least when Jimmy Smith and Reggie Williams are tied up. Their is no arguing with his red zone prowess.

Fantasy Impact- I would seriously consider adding Matt Jones in a league with 10 or more teams as a sleeper in anticipation of him gaining TE eligibility. The TE second tier is so bunched that Jones could be a significant upgrade or at least a serviceable plug and play at the position.

Michael Jenkins- I still believe that there are a few places in the league that receivers go to become irrelevant in the fantasy world. Atlanta has been one whenever Vick is behind center. I doubt that Vick will be able to completely reverse his tendencies to use his legs at the first sign of tight coverage, but if he increases his passing then Jenkins looks like a formidable target. The wide receiver caught both touchdowns for the Falcons and is taking advantage of his time in the first receiver chair.

Fantasy Impact- I would watch Jenkins through the first game with my cursor hovering over the add link in leagues that have 14 teams or less. If he shows what he’s showing today I would want to be first in line for his services. In leagues with more than 14 teams, Jenkins would be a medium risk/medium reward add right now. If you have any low ceiling WR in one of those larger leagues (like a Travis Taylor, or Marty Booker) it might be worth the chance at 900 yards and 7 TDs.

The SMN FFL Draft Review: Part 2

2005-08-24T21:02:00.000-07:00

by the Tower of Power

This will be the second review in a seven part series of the SMN Fantasy Football League draft. If you would like to have your draft reviewed by Underdog Sports, send an email and the draft information to underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com .

Round 4

55. D. Foster STRYKE FORCE

56. J. Arrington Free Sean Ta...

57. J. Witten theTunasCatch

58. D. Staley SteelFighters

59. D. Driver Rocky's Pride

60. M. Muhammad Gaping Hole

61. J. Porter The Half Drunks

62. Ro. Williams Juggernauts

63. K. Barlow Crusher's Pride

64. K. Collins Towers of Power

65. F. Taylor Miracle on Turf

66. Ro. Williams Once again...

67. W. Dunn Monarchs

68. A. Brooks Raleigh Rene...

69. E. Moulds Eagles all t...

70. J. Shockey Weekend Warr...

71. C. Bailey Ngoction

72. A. Crumpler Jupiter Jammers

Best Value: Roy Williams – Juggernauts

This was a tough round to judge. Many teams did a good job grabbing value, but the Juggernauts win by a slight edge due to the fact that Williams has the biggest statistical upside of the group.

Gutsy Pick: Champ Bailey – Ngoction and Roy Williams – Once Again

Grabbing quality defensive players this early is not a sound strategy, but if either of these players has a big year, it could look like a genius move.

Round 5

73. C. Williams Jupiter Jammers

74. A. Vinatieri Ngoction

75. J. Delhomme Weekend Warr...

76. C. Benson Eagles all t...

77. D. Mason Raleigh Rene...

78. J. Plummer Monarchs

79. T. Newman Once again...

80. R. Droughns Miracle on Turf

81. L. Fitzgerald Towers of Power

82. Ji. Smith Crusher's Pride

83. C. Palmer Juggernauts

84. J. Bettis The Half Drunks

85. T. Heap Gaping Hole

86. A. Lelie Rocky's Pride

87. L. Evans SteelFighters

88. P. Burress theTunasCatch

89. S. Moss Free Sean Ta...

90. E. Kennison STRYKE FORCE

Best Value: Carnell Williams – Jupiter Jammers

Why he wasn’t picked earlier is beyond me.

Gutsy Pick: Adam Vinatieri – Ngoction

Being the first person to select a kicker is not a distinction one strives for in a fantasy draft, but there is something to be said for getting the player you want.

Round 6

91. Ro. Smith STRYKE FORCE

92. L. Smith Free Sean Ta...

93. Da. Clark theTunasCatch

94. D. Branch SteelFighters

95. T. Duckett Rocky's Pride

96. C. Rogers Gaping Hole

97. B. Stokley The Half Drunks

98. K. McCardell Juggernauts

99. R. McMichael Crusher's Pride

100. M. Anderson Towers of Power

101. M. Williams Miracle on Turf

102. S. McNair Once again...

103. T. Houshmandzadeh Monarchs

104. Ke. Johnson Raleigh Rene...

105. M. Faulk Eagles all t...

106. L. Johnson Weekend Warr...

107. M. Washington Ngoction

108. D. Givens Jupiter Jammers

Best Value: Deion Branch – SteelFighters

From all accounts, Branch should breakthrough this year. I challenge anyone to name 50 better fantasy contributors than Branch.

Gutsy Pick: Larry Johnson – Weekend Warriors

Grabbing someone else’s handcuff player (Eagles all the way drafted Priest Holmes) is just about as risky as it gets. For one thing, you know Johnson is a backup and will not produce right away and while he is not producing, he is taking up a roster spot that could otherwise be occupied by a fantasy contributor.

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

The SMN FFL Draft Review: Part 1

2005-08-24T11:43:00.000-07:00

by the Tower of Power

This will be the first review in a seven part series of the SMN Fantasy Football League draft. If you would like to have your draft reviewed by Underdog Sports, send an email and the draft information to underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com .

Round 1

1. P. Manning Jupiter Jammers

2. L. Tomlinson Ngoction

3. S. Alexander Weekend Warr...

4. P. Holmes Eagles all t...

5. E. James Raleigh Rene...

6. R. Moss Monarchs

7. C. Portis Once again...

8. J. Lewis Miracle on Turf

9. K. Jones Towers of Power

10. D. Culpepper Crusher's Pride

11. D. McAllister Juggernauts

12. B. Favre The Half Drunks

13. W. McGahee Gaping Hole

14. C. Dillon Rocky's Pride

15. D. Davis SteelFighters

16. T. Green theTunasCatch

17. D. McNabb Free Sean Ta...

18. T. Barber STRYKE FORCE

Best Value: Cory Dillon – Rocky’s Pride

Getting a rock solid, stud RB at the 14^th pick in the first round is a steal.

Gutsy Pick: Peyton Manning – Jupiter Jammers

Drafting Manning 1^st overall off a historic season is gutsy in the pure fact that the Jammers have to be betting he’ll do it again. This is definitely a risk with sure things like Tomlinson and Alexander available.

Round 2

19. A. Green STRYKE FORCE

20. J. Jones Free Sean Ta...

21. M. Harrison theTunasCatch

22. R. Johnson SteelFighters

23. T. Holt Rocky's Pride

24. C. Martin Gaping Hole

25. B. Westbrook The Half Drunks

26. S. Jackson Juggernauts

27. T. Bell Crusher's Pride

28. L. Jordan Towers of Power

29. T. Owens Miracle on Turf

30. T. Gonzalez Once again...

31. C. Johnson Monarchs

32. A. Gates Raleigh Rene...

33. J. Walker Eagles all t...

34. J. Horn Weekend Warr...

35. T. Brady Ngoction

36. A. Johnson Jupiter Jammers

Best Value: Terrell Owens – Miracle on Turf

Owens falling to 29^th is an absolute steal. He shouldn’t have lasted past the first round.

Gutsy Pick: Tatum Bell – Crusher’s Pride

Bell may very well end up being the best RB in fantasy football this year, but this pick is hard to justify with players like LaMont Jordan and Terrell Owens still available, not to mention the current position battle with Mike Anderson in Denver.

Round 3

37. R. Wayne Jupiter Jammers

38. A. Boldin Ngoction

39. H. Ward Weekend Warr...

40. M. Bulger Eagles all t...

41. C. Brown Raleigh Rene...

42. D. Jackson Monarchs

43. S. Smith Once again...

44. M. Vick Miracle on Turf

45. N. Burleson Towers of Power

46. D. Bennett Crusher's Pride

47. M. Bennett Juggernauts

48. I. Bruce The Half Drunks

49. D. Brees Gaping Hole

50. M. Hasselbeck Rocky's Pride

51. C. Chambers SteelFighters

52. R. Brown theTunasCatch

53. L. Coles Free Sean Ta...

54. Mi. Clayton STRYKE FORCE

Best Value: Ronnie Brown – theTunasCatch

RB’s win fantasy leagues and Ronnie Brown has the ability to have a big year. The Ricky Williams factor is neutralized with how late theTunasCatch was able to reel in Brown.

Gutsy Pick: Michael Vick – Miracle on Turf

Vick is a fantasy owner’s headache. To read more on him, go to http://underdogsports.blogspot.com/2005/08/why-i-hate-michael-vick.html

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

To Mewelde Moore Owners

2005-08-24T06:57:00.000-07:00

by the Tower of Power

According to reports from several sources, Moore has a chance to start for the Vikings over Michael Bennett.

Fantasy Advice - Avoid drafting Bennett or Moore until the 3rd round in your draft, at the earliest.

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

Why I hate Michael Vick

2005-08-23T01:38:00.000-07:00

by the Tower of Power

Does any player drive more fantasy owners crazy than Michael Vick?

Oh, Michael - that young QB, with the cannon arm and the crazy legs, who can’t seem to put it all together to become the perfect fantasy stud. We have all imagined it…a 3000 yard, 30 td passer who gains 1000 yards rushing. He should be the perfect player. He has all the skills, but he isn’t and it kills every owner who takes the plunge and says, “This will be the year.”

I have been you…and I hate Michael Vick.

Last year, he put up an embarrassingly low 78.1 QB rating. He should not be a C+ QB. The 2313 passing yards he put up was pedestrian. There is simply no excuse for 14 td passes in 15 games (along with 46 sacks and 12 picks). The really sad part about these numbers is that last year was a HISTORIC year on so many levels for so many QB’s. Records were broken and this is all Vick could give you.

Yet, he did rush for 902 yards and three tds. He averaged 7.5 yards a rush.

The fantasy impact of having Vick is the equivalent of Gus Frerotte and Kevan Barlow wrapped up into one player (minus the tendency to head butt concrete walls as a touchdown celebration). He is the equivalent of a bad QB and a second level RB.

It sucks.

Last year his average draft position was between 10^th and 12^th. In many drafts, he may have been the first QB taken. I took him over Daunte Culpepper in the 1^st round in one league. I know, I am an idiot.

Unfortunately, people are still shooting themselves in the foot and subjecting themselves to the headaches Vick will cause. According to ESPN.com, his average draft position is 19.2 (early to mid 2^nd round) and he is owned in 98.3% of leagues.

To all of you Vick owners – keep dreaming that dream. Enjoy the 250 passing yard, 2 passing td, 120 rushing yard, 2 rushing td day he’ll give you, because you will have to bear through many 100 passing yard days.

My fantasy advice – avoid Vick like the plague this year.

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

The Five Immutable Laws of the Fantasy Football Draft

2005-08-22T22:13:00.000-07:00

by the Tower of Power

Over the 600 or so fantasy football drafts I have participated in, there have been five rules that apply universally, assuming no extreme scoring changes. For instance, I was in a league where completions were worth two points. This blatant oversight caused QB’s to be the most valuable commodities, often outscoring the rest of their respective fantasy teammates combined. With that lone exception, I now present the five laws.

1) Running backs win leagues

Disregard historic seasons by WR’s, QB’s, and TE’s and always remember that starting RB’s should be the rock around which you construct your squad. Pick young, quality backs in good offenses with your first two picks (three if you get lucky or are in a league with 10 members or less).

2) Kickers, Defenses, and TE’s should be drafted with your last three picks

A kicker will not win a league. A defense will not win a league. A TE will not win a league. I always gasp when I see that first Defense drafted in the 4^th round or that inevitable run of kickers in the 7^th. The biggest thing you need to know here is that the difference between the 1^st and 20^th ranked Defenses and kickers are usually less than 10% of total fantasy value. Those 4^th and 7^th round picks are better spent on good receivers, your second QB, or a gamble at RB. As far as the TE goes, if his name is not Tony Gonzalez, he will ultimately either be a hit or miss depending on a litany of factors. I recommend ranking a top 15 and waiting to see who drops. You will be pleasantly surprised. I recently grabbed Marcus Pollard in the 17^th round in an 18 team league.

3) Always pick WR’s who play with good QB’s

The simple dynamic of the WR/QB relationship is often overlooked when ranking the position. Many fantasy owners end up falling in love with players who get hyped up on bad teams, or who have awesome physical skills, or who had a great game the previous year and are “ready to explode”. Don’t fall for it. Look to the Culpepper’s, Manning’s, Green’s, Brady’s, and Favre’s of the world to fill your ranks. A third receiver can become a solid contributor when on the back end of a perfectly thrown ball in a good system. Look at it this way; if a QB is slated to throw for 3500 yards and 30 tds, someone has to catch the ball for him to amass those stats.

4) Always draft keepers over sleepers

There is no bigger thrill for a fantasy owner then to draft a “sleeper” and have the low round pick become a stud. The problem is that sleepers often don’t wake up. For every Ruben Droughns or Antonio Gates, there are 100 Justin Gage’s, Kevan Barlow’s, and my favorite, Josh McCown’s (I don’t know what I was thinking last year). The main difference is that a keeper is a less sexy pick who you know will produce. Eddie Kennison would be the consummate keeper. A third option, top WR for a high octane offense who, for one reason or another, never gets respect, but still produces solid 1000 yard, 8 td seasons. Keepers are talented platoon RB’s who slip because they have to share the ball. Sleepers are Denver 4^th string RB’s, who might have a shot at becoming a stud in that machine of a system they run. Sleepers are a high risk, hit-or-miss proposition. Keepers are low risk, sure things. Don’t be that guy who finishes 6^th and says, “Well, if so-and-so and so-and-so had panned out, I would have won this thing.” Be boring and have the last laugh.

5) Good offensive lines are the key to good offenses

I’ve had arguments about this last law, but it has not failed me yet. The biggest question I get is what to look for. There are three fail safe criteria to follow to help you in your quest. The first is continuity. Major shakeups on an offensive line can lead to disaster, while lines that have stayed together for two years or more usually perform better than their counterpart’s game to game. Secondly, look for Probowl credentials. A fantasy owner can’t be expected to appreciate the nuances of each position on the offensive line, mostly because these plays are rarely highlighted on television. An easy way to get around that is to see if any of a team’s hogs has been to a Probowl. If they have, there is a good shot they are a quality player. Lastly, read the injury report. Health is a big concern for a team’s offensive line and this can change week to week. You wouldn’t start Priest Holmes if you knew he was out that week. The same should hold true as a factor if Walter Jones or John Ogden goes down. Their absence makes things much harder for their offenses and much easier for the opposing defense. The gist of this rule is that a solid understanding of offensive lines around the NFL can help create a better understanding of offensive performance as a whole.

Thank you for reading.

To comment on this article, you can reach the Tower of Power at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com

Spreadsheet

2005-08-21T08:49:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the first of many Underdog posts. If you do not have a copy of my predictions spreadsheet, please e-mail me at underdogsportsblog@yahoo.com and I will send you a copy. I want to start by emphasizing that my spreadsheet is simply based on predictions and adaptable to each individual league’s scoring formula. It can be as useful a tool as you want to make it but it should provide an alternative to more static rankings.

Rankings can be a helpful foundation for developing a sound understanding of fantasy value, but they are often misleading. For example, while testing out the spreadsheet feel free to play around with the formulas. You’ll notice that changing completion scoring from zero points a completion to one point each will drastically affect quarterback rankings. This could lead you to draft your quarterbacks in a different order, and it could also make landing a top tier quarterback a higher draft priority than selecting another position altogether. Therefore Peyton Manning could be a clear number one overall pick with one scoring formula and less of a priority in another.

By now I am sure that you have heard the sound fantasy advice, “know your scoring setup.” I would take that one step further and encourage everyone to know and apply your scoring setup.

Once you have your scoring formula set then you are ready to make your own predictions. Most fantasy publications use a system of averages. This system works fairly well for players that are returning to the same injury free conditions that they have played in over the past few years, however, it does not factor in deviations from past conditions. Using averages in 2004 would have predicted 15.5 touchdowns for Clinton Portis. Anyone who drafted Portis last year expecting those scoring numbers was let down by almost half that production past the goal line. Averages are much easier to calculate, but they are useless for all but the most stable players.

When making my predictions I factored in health concerns, change of team, key relationship players (i.e. how Randy Moss will affect Kerry Collins in Oakland), team trends, league trends, and of course… rumors. Here is an overview of reasoning. I encourage you to upgrade or downgrade any statistic you disagree with. Make this spreadsheet reflect your opinions on the upcoming season and you will have created a useful draft day tool.

Quarterbacks Overall: Last year’s emphasis on limiting downfield contact led to an increase in quarterback production around the league. While I see that officiating trend continuing in 2005 I also predict that most quarterbacks will take a step back from their 2004 fluxes.

Notable Value Changes:
Peyton Manning- Repeat of 2004 unlikely… Downgrade.
Daunte Culpepper- Tice calling for offensive balance… Downgrade.
Donovan McNabb- Drama will stay off the field, Buckhalter improves O… Upgrade.
Drew Brees- Will hold off Rivers and scare off timid fantasy owners… Sleeper.
Kerry Collins- Randy Ratio compliant… Upgrade.
Trent Green- As D finally improves, shootouts less likely… Downgrade.
Brian Griese- Improved overall O, full year at the helm… Sleeper
Kurt Warner- New York masked existing value, plenty of desert weapons… Sleeper.
Joey Harrington- Garcia will scare some owners from fantasy armory… Sleeper.

Runningbacks Overall: Nothing scares me more on draft day than touchdown vultures and I am afraid that more and more teams will be employing the services of a short and goal specialist. Frustration awaits any owner that is unfamiliar with these value leaching pairings.

This is also a key injury-watch position. Replacement backs can emerge as fantasy studs and carry a team to late season victory. I listed committee and vulture backs that will cripple fantasy value and possible backups that could supplant an injured starter. Key position battles are also noted in purple while predicting points based on each back winning the starting job for a majority of the season.

Notable Value Changes:
Willis McGahee- Full year of 2004 highlights with the O on his shoulders… Upgrade.
Domanick Davis- Improving with young Houston core each year… Upgrade.
Edgerrin James- Attention to Peyton adds to Edge resurgence… Upgrade.
Julius Jones- Full year of high touch-per-game count… Upgrade.
Curtis Martin- Durability issues aside, repeat of TD goldmine unlikely… Downgrade.
Jamal Lewis- Heap and Mason will bite out of same small offensive pie… Downgrade.
LaMont Jordan- Crockett may vulture, still flourishes in starting gig… Sleeper.
J.J. Arrington- Wide open O, but size still a concern to some… Sleeper
Ahman Green- Healthy attempts dropping as Favre passes increase… Downgrade.
Deuce McAllister- Faded from every phase of NO attack in 2004… Downgrade.
Ronnie Brown- Yoga instructor’s return clouding value… Sleeper.
Brian Westbrook- Welcome back Buckhalter… Downgrade.
Kevan Barlow- Warning: miserable offensive struggles ahead for SF… Downgrade.

Wide Receivers Overall: With all the yards going around there is depth at each receiver tier. Why reach for a second or third receiver early with depth at other positions diminishing quickly? The contact rule enforcement has created fantasy studs out of some teams’ second receiving option and fantasy depth out of lesser known pass catchers.

Notable Value Changes:
Terrell Owens- A full year of on field harmony… Upgrade.
Nate Burleson- Daunte’s first option for the entire year… Upgrade.
Chad Johnson- Improved TD celebrations and chemistry with rising Palmer… Upgrade.
Steve Smith- Anything Muh can do he can do better (healthy)… Upgrade.
Darrell Jackson- Robinson’s departure creates a clear number one… Upgrade.
Andre Johnson- Heard of the third year receiver theory, well… Upgrade.
Reggie Wayne- Let some other owner expect 2004 numbers… Downgrade.
Anquan Boldin- Healthy, third year, Warner, enough said… Upgrade.
Laveranues Coles- Welcome back to New York and relevancy … Upgrade.
Eddie Kennison- Holmes and Gonzalez scraps still a meal for most… Sleeper.
Drew Bennett- Success as Volek’s second, now McNair’s first… Downgrade.
Marcus Robinson- High TD/reception ratio with more on the way… Sleeper.
Plaxico Burress- Still second receiving option, but in worse O… Downgrade.
Derrick Mason- Ravens not known for passing proficiency… Downgrade.
Keyshawn Johnson- A better QB an overall improvement… Upgrade.
Donte’ Stallworth- Role no longer a question, no excuses… Sleeper.
Muhsin Muhammad- Chicago an offensive wasteland… Downgrade.
Braylon Edwards- Not much fantasy wealth to spread in Cleveland… Downgrade.
Reche Caldwell- Brees’ number two could gain in Gates’ drama… Sleeper.
Brandon Stokley- Injured and likely to cede value found in 2004… Downgrade.
Cedric Wilson- Could replace Plax as Big Ben’s number two… Sleeper.
Peerless Price- Remains in a run first, second, and third offense… Downgrade.
Reggie Williams- Could benefit from Leftwich development… Sleeper.
Mike Williams- A TD threat even if Rogers stays healthy… Sleeper.
Greg Lewis- Will take on increased role in Philly passing game… Sleeper.

Tight Ends Overall: Contact rule enforcement affected tight ends more than any other position other than quarterback. Many teams involved them in increased receiving roles resulting in breakout years for several. I anticipate this trend to not only continue but to grow as well. With the likelihood of even more tight ends moving up the depth chart from obscurity, it may be wise to draft the position late after the top tier is gone in almost all formats. A handful of tight ends have the potential of becoming the Gates and Witten of 2005.

Notable Value Changes:
Alge Crumpler- Started annual improvement trend even before 2004… Upgrade.
Dallas Clark- No longer shares tight end passes with Pollard… Upgrade.
Todd Heap- Mason could make a healthy Heap a bigger threat… Upgrade.
Chris Cooley- Worked well in partial season with Ramsey… Sleeper.
Eric Johnson- Already low TD count, now less passes likely… Downgrade.
Doug Jolley- Could be a fixture in Pennington led O… Sleeper.
Jermaine Wiggins- More wealth to spread with Moss gone… Upgrade.
L.J. Smith- Role increased in 2004 even with addition of T.O…. Upgrade.
Ben Watson- Could be primary target instead of Graham… Sleeper.

Place Kickers Overall: There is almost no reason to draft a kicker before the last few rounds in any draft. Their overall value is so close that it might be better to start kickers based on opponents and not on any particular rankings.

Notable Value Changes:
Sebastian Janikowski- Should see more attempts with improved offense… Upgrade.
Mike Vanderjagt- Peyton finishing less drives means more kicks… Upgrade.
Neil Rackers- Could benefit from new offensive cast… Sleeper.

Well, I hope you enjoy crafting the spreadsheet to your liking and I wish you the best of luck on your fantasy season. Check back regularly for more fantasy relevant information as the season unfolds.

Underdog